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Monday, August 17, 2015

Identiffy Reversal (1)

Successful hedge fund managers, for example Bruce Kovner, Ed Seykota and John Henry happen to be stalwarts of trend trading for a long time. This approach is probably the most reliable trading methods devised for all those seeking outsized returns. It features a proven history of producing large profits in from stock indexes to orange juice. Additionally was, perhaps most famously, the tactic used using a relatively well-known number of average people that Richard Dennis became profitable traders, referred to as


But, at some point, all good things must end, including a trend.


When this occurs, a price reversal happens, and if you‘re unable in order to make the distinction between a price pullback and also a price reversal, it may cost you dearly.

Price reversals could be brutal and sudden because when an existing mature trend is set up, it may catch complacent traders off guard, as when they are hit using a sucker punch.

The rationale is any trend, regardless of how strong or how long it really has been set up, can outrun its underlying fundamentals or evolving technical criteria. As a rubber band which has been stretched to its limit, at some point It‘ll snap back quickly inside the opposite direction.

Trend traders must keep this on your mind. Inside a fast-moving market, not understanding each time a price reversal will appear is similar to playing Russian roulette. Even should you get lucky five times, once the hammer falls you‘re finished.

Trend physics

Newton’s First Law of Physics details that,


However, the hard truth of trend trading is at some point it ends. Worse, during its move it may result in complacency upon the section of the trader because it may lull you into believing that It‘ll continue on its current path forever. The trader simply overlooks the consideration the trend could end suddenly and abruptly.

Herds of traders become victim to price reversals just by the inability to learn warning signs and produce adjustments because They‘re Not reading price accurately. This insufficient skill can cause unnecessary losses, but, greater than that, it may cause missing opportunities in case a new trend begins to materialize.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Using Channel in Forex


 Pricing channels could be a good technical trading strategy for trending markets. Perhaps one of the reasons they‘re so popular with market technicians is e they‘re easily recognizable in your charts, and can also be just as simple to plan a trading strategy around if you understand things to look out for. Today we‘ll review how you can identify a pricing channel, and how you can organize a trading strategy by applying this charting pattern.

First, let’s understand how to discover a pricing channel on our charts. This could be made by identifying and connecting a series of highs and lows in your graph, which should become levels of support and resistance. Below we will see a descending channel upon the AUDUSD 2Hr chart. Notice how resistance is formed by connecting the 2 previous highs to form a type of resistance (price ceiling ). Since resistance is descending, support (floor ) ought to be descending along with the AUDUSD creates a series of lower lows. These lows should run parallel towards the resistance line which was a previously drawn completing the value channel pattern.

The AUDUSD in your example today is taken into account a descending price channel, but it ought to be noted that channels can also rise inside an uptrend and trade sideways in ranging markets. When the pattern is identified together with its direction, a trader can then prepare to enter into the marketplace.

Learn Forex – USDCHF 4Hour Trend
Channel_Trading_Basics_body_Picture_2. png, Channel Trading Basics


(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2. 0 charts )

Trading the Channel

Once a price channel is identified, identifying areas to trade becomes a really straight forward proposition. Trading pricing channels is a lot like trading a range since we‘ll pinpoint regions of support and resistance for out entries. Inside a descending pricing channel, such like the AUDUSD seen below, traders will look to sell the marketplace on the test of resistance. Traders will look to sell during this gradual downtrend and take advantage or price reaching to lower lows. It’s crucial to recognize that trading channels is ultimately a support and resistance strategy. That implies that traders will wait for their chance to enter the marketplace and never trade when prices reside between these levels.

Learn Forex – USDCHF Channel Entries
Channel_Trading_Basics_body_Picture_1. png, Channel Trading Basics


(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2. 0 charts )

Exiting Positions

No matter your trading strategy, traders should always possess a intend to exit the marketplace. One among the rewards of channel trading, is stop and limit levels are built around our previously defined levels of support and resistance. Inside a downward sloping channel, stops ought to always be placed above a degree of resistance. In case that price begins printing higher highs, traders would want to exit positions to sell the AUDUSD as soon as possible.

Profit targets will certainly be set by using the support line from the pricing channel. Traders will extrapolate this value by extending our line upon the graph. Traders would want to exit positions having a limit order, when price touches this area of support. When the channel usually is to continue, price may bounce to resistance at this stage, continuing our descending charting pattern.

Saturday, August 15, 2015

Candlestick Strategies 5

 Hanging man

Hanging man candlestick formations are another reversal pattern. This formation typically happens following a prolonged uptrend each time a security moves significantly lower following the open, but rallies to close well above the intraday low. It is very important emphasize the hanging man pattern is really a warning of potential price change, not really a signal, in and of itself, to reach short.

“Hang ‘em high” (below ) includes an example found in Alcoa (AA ). On Feb. 15, Alcoa formed a hanging man pattern after a short uptrend, Alcoa opened at $9. 34 created a higher of $9. 36, a coffee of $9. 20 after which closed at $9. 32. So after made a low of $9. 20, Alcoa recovered and closed almost near its opening price.




A trader may need taken short positions when the Feb. 15 low of $9. 20 was taken in subsequent trading sessions. This happened on Feb. 19 when Alcoa opened at $9. 31. When the $9. 20 level was broken, shorts may need been initiated, having a stop loss set in the Feb. 15 high of $9. 36. In later trading sessions, Alcoa reached a coffee of $8. 30.

Although they‘re relatively reliable, candle patterns are only one tool inside a trader’s toolbox. Traders should integrate candlestick analysis, moving averages, Bollinger bands, price patterns (for example triangles ) and indicators (for example stochastic or CCI ) to attain trading decisions. In fact, the break of the simple trendline is really a powerful message that shouldn‘t be ignored, particularly when done about of reversal formations.

Friday, August 14, 2015

Candlestick Strategies 4

 “Downturn” (below ) provides an example in Caterpillar. On March 12, 2013, Caterpillar formed a bearish engulfing pattern that engulfed the previous day’s candle completely and gave an indication of the subsequent correction — during this case, one which continued until April 18. As for entry strategy, the trader Shouldn‘t short sell on March 12 but wait for the day’s low to become broken and sustained for any subsequent trading session. Entry confirmation came on March 13, and also a short sell could possibly be initiated regarding that day. A reasonable stop loss could happen to be placed in the March 12 high, or $91. 16.




Hammer

The hammer candlestick pattern forms following a prolonged downtrend. It is taken into account a robust reversal signal. Upon the day from the hammer candle, There‘s strong selling like the market opens up. Like the day goes on, however, the marketplace recovers and closes close to the unchanged mark, or in some instances even higher.

American International Group (AIG ) provides a very good example from the hammer formation (see “Trend shift, ” below ). On June 24, AIG formed a hammer pattern following a prolonged downtrend. The stock opened at $43. 01 created a coffee of $41. 53 before closing at $42. 30. Although the stock stabbed lower, it recovered and closed near its opening price, indicating that buyers came in in the lower levels.




A reasonable entry point for that particular hammer pattern could be in the high of June 23 at $43. 04. On June 25, AIG opened at $42. 85 and when $43. 01 was broken, longs could happen to be initiated having a stop loss in the June 23 low of $41. 53. AIG inside the coming sessions made a higher of $46. 83.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Candlestcik Strategies (3)


 Engulfing pattern

The bullish engulfing pattern is most significant when it occurs following a prolonged downtrend. The stock or index is selling off sharply. Upon the day from the bullish engulfing pattern, prices will often start the day by falling. However, strong buying interest is available in and turns the marketplace around.

The bullish engulfing pattern is so named since the open-close choice of this candle surrounds or engulfs the open-close range from the previous one. The bullish engulfing represents a reversal of supply and demand. Whereas supply has previously far outstripped demand, now the buyers tend to be more eager compared to the sellers. Perhaps with a market bottom, this really is just short covering initially, though it‘s the catalyst that ultimately creates a buying stampede.

When analyzing the bullish engulfing pattern, always concentrate on its size. The wider the candle, the greater significant the possible reversal. A bullish engulfing candle that consumes several from the previous candles speaks of the powerful shift out there.

Apple Inc. provided a very good example of the pattern last summer. Apple were on the downtrend from June 1 until June 20. Then, on June 23, Apple formed a bullish engulfing pattern where that day’s candle engulfed the previous day’s candle completely and suggested the market would embark on a brand new bullish rally.

As seen in “Expanding opportunity” (below ), the trader wouldn‘t buy exactly on June 23 once the bullish engulfing pattern was formed, however. The trader would wait to the June 23 high of $331. 69 to become broken and sustained for any subsequent trading session. Confirmation came on June 28, when prudent traders may need initiated long positions. A reasonable level for any stop loss would function as the June 23 low of $318.



The bearish engulfing pattern is that the opposite from the bullish engulfing pattern. Like its companion, It‘s most significant when it occurs following a prolonged, steady trend. Upon the day from the bearish engulfing pattern, prices often begin by rising. However, strong selling is available in and turns the marketplace around.

Candlestick Strategies (2)

DOJI
The Doji  is one of the most important candlestick patterns. A doji formation is a single-candle pattern. It occurs when prices opened and closed at the same level. A doji represents equilibrium between supply and demand, a tug of war that neither the bulls nor bears are winning. Traders should not take action on the doji alone. Always wait for the next candlestick to make an appropriate trade.
After a long uptrend, the appearance of a doji can be an ominous warning sign that the trend has peaked or is close to peaking. The converse holds true for a downtrend. When assessing a doji, always take careful notice of where the doji occurs. If the security you’re examining is still in the early stages of an uptrend or downtrend, then it is unlikely that the doji will mark a top, but it could precede a pause in the current trend move. It can be viewed as a pivot.
“Top marker” (below) includes an example of a successful doji pattern. As shown in the daily chart, the S&P 500 started its rally from June 25, 2013, reached a high of 1709 on Aug. 2, and then on Aug. 5, the index opened at 1708 and closed at 1707.41. The open and the high were almost the same, which are the qualifications for the doji candlestick pattern.


Confirmation of a new downtrend came on Aug. 6 when the S&P 500 broke the Aug. 5 low of 1703 and closed at 1697.3. A reasonable stop loss could have been placed at the Aug. 5 high of 1709.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Candlestick Strategies (1)

Candlestick are one of the most powerful technical analysis tools in the trader’s toolkit. They are also one of the most prevalent. Most technical analysis programs use candlesticks as the default mode of charting. Used correctly, candlesticks can give a signal in advance of much other market action. They can be a leading indicator of market activity.
But familiarity doesn’t necessarily breed expertise. There are perhaps more than 100 individual candlesticks and candlestick patterns. This is a daunting amount of information for a trader to understand and apply.
As with most things, some candlestick patterns are more useful than others. Here, we will take a look at some of the most viable for stock traders. These are candlestick patterns that experience shows have the most relevance to making consistently profitable trading decisions. Used correctly, they should increase the accuracy of your predictions.

Candle basics
For those not familiar with the details of candlestick charting, it’s important to go over the fundamentals. The difference between the open and the close is called the “real body” of the candlestick. The higher of these values creates the upper extreme of the real body, and the lower of these values creates the lower extreme. The amount the stock rose in price above the real body is called the upper shadow. The amount that the stock fell below the real body is called the lower shadow.
If the candle is green or white, it means the lower extreme is defined by the opening price and that the stock’s price rose during the period being charted. If the candle is red or black, then the lower extreme identifies the closing price, and the stock fell during the period.
Candles may be created for any time period: Monthly, weekly, hourly or even a minute. Regardless of the time frame, candlesticks should not be judged in isolation; traders should always look for follow-up action to confirm any signals during the following applicable period.